Here we are. On the doorstep of the Superbowl. Only four teams left. And one of them is not the Green Bay Packers. If you read my "5 stages of grieving for Packer's fans" post, you know I've already moved on, and I hope you have as well. The sooner you can move on, the sooner you can enjoy the 3 remaining NFL games left over the next 8 months(Pro Bowl doesn't count). If you've been keeping up with the blog, you know that my picks went 3-1 the first weekend, followed by a disastrous 1-3 last weekend. I'm guessing if anyone used my picks for gambling purposes last weekend, they are now living in a cardboard box below the Kilbourn Bridge. Sorry! With the outcomes of the games this past weekend, we were all denied a "Fail Mary" rematch in Green Bay as well as another Manning/Brady shootout. Even though the games didnt go as I forsaw, two of the games were devastatingly entertaining and unforgettable(The two forgetable games? Obviously the "Collapse at Candlestick" and the Patriots dismantling of the once promising Texans on Sunday).
The Baltimore/Denver game was close throughout and only because of a "WTF" 70 yard TD bomb with less than a minute to play by Joe Flacco were the Ravens able to send the game into overtime. The teams went back and forth, eventually going into a 2nd overtime(which virtually never happens. Its only happened 6 times TOTAL in the history of the NFL playoffs) where Peyton threw an ill-advised pass across the middle, setting the Ravens up with a short field of play. Three plays later, the Ravens kicked a FG, ending Peyton's magical 2012 run and sending the Ravens to the AFC championship for the third time in 5 years(2008,2011,2012). Final score: Baltimore 38, Denver 35. Pop Culture Badger's record for the weekend: 0-1.
We all know what happened with the game Saturday night(Pop Culture Badger's record through Saturday: 0-2), so let's just jump ahead to Sunday afternoon.
If you didn't catch the Seattle/Atlanta gameyou may have missed out on what could be the best game of the playoffs. To recap, Atlanta jumped out to a 20 point halftime lead and got complacent in the second half. They then allowed 21 points in the FOURTH QUARTER, letting Seattle take the lead for the first tim in the game with only 31 seconds left. For all intents and purposes, Atlanta should have been dead and buried.
Somehow in a very un-"Atlanta"like way the Falcons completed a few long passes in a matter of seconds getting into FG range, setting themselves up for the win. Their kicker Matt Bryant trots out, lines up his kick, AND MISSES....
But wait! Seattle had called a timeout before the kick, attempting to "freeze" the kicker(Which has worked once in approximately 5,000 attempts). Bryant lines up again, boots it right down the middle. Game over, right? WRONG.
Atlanta nearly blew the "comeback" by pooch kicking it, giving Seattle the ball near midfield. I'm sure I am not the only Packer's fan who had "Fail Mary" flashbacks, as Russell Wilson heaved up a toss towards the endzone. Luckily for Atlanta fans, Julio Jones intercepted it, ensuring the Falcon's would be hosting the NFC championship game this weekend.
Which leads us to the Conference Championship games this weekend. Lets get to it!
San Francisco 49ers vs. Atlanta Falcons
Sunday @ 2:00 PM
Line: SF by 4
Considering I picked both of these teams to lose last week, maybe I'm not the best judge of this game. There are quite a few questions that I have that this game will answer and will ultimately determine the winner. Those questions and my gut feeling to them are:
* Can Colin Kaepernick repeat his performance?
Gut feeling: Not a chance, but we need to remember that the talent gap between the 49ers and Falcons is vastily larger than the gap between the 49ers/Packers. Even if "Kaep" can only give 70% of what he showed vs. the Packers, I think the 49er's still have a great chance. As porous as the Green Bay defense was, I believe the Falcons are even worse, and they're not at full strength. The heart of their linebacking corp, John Abraham, has been limited at practice. This does not bode well as he would have been one of the biggest factors in stopping "Kaep" from breaking out of the pocket and scampering up the field again and again.
* Will the fact that the Falcons finally won a playoff game with the current regime have any effect on the game?
Gut feeling: Unequivocally YES. Ask any sports player how much their psyche weighs on their gameplay. With Atlanta getting the proverbial "monkey off their backs", they can focus solely on the 49er's without having to worry about some "curse" or "dry spell" drummed up by the media. They will remember how they stopped the hottest team in the NFL by withstanding a furious 4th quarter comeback before assembling a miraculous drive to get themselves in FG range. I wouldnt have thought it after the "Collapse at CandlesticK", but the Falcons actually have the momentum going into the NFC championship.
* Which will bend or break first: Atlanta's high flying pass happy offense or San Fran's slow down, smash-mouth, airtight contain defense?
Gut feeling: This one may shock you, but I believe San Francisco's defense will finally hit the wall against Atlanta's passing game.
In a matter of eight days, San Francisco will have played the two best recieving corps in the NFL. Even though Matt Ryan is no Aaron Rodgers, he still is a top 10 QB who no longer has the stigma of "never won a big game" hanging on him like dead weight. Between Julio Jones, Roddy White, and Tony Gonzalez, Atlanta had three of the top 25 receiving targets in the entire league this year. The Packers in hindsight had two at best(Jones, Cobb). I don't believe San Fran can play lockdown D in back to back weeks, especially with one more stud to guard. Which leads me to my prediction....
Shocking right? This isnt a revenge pick in any way against SF for the destruction of the Packers last week, I just think that "Kaep" used his coming out party a week too early. Let me explain.
I'd compare the NFL playoff's to a race in Mario Kart. San Francisco had the uber-weapon, blue shell(Kaepernick), but got restless and used it on lap 2. Now there stuck with the useless banana.
Atlanta had a green shell, got behind Seattle, aimed perfectly and took them out. With their playoff win last week they picked up a star, set it off, and are homing in on the 49er's whose banana is now useless.(If you understood, the last two paragraphs, congratulations! You're a geek like me). Atlanta's at home, with momentum, knows what Kaep is capable of and can plan accordingly, and they are free of stress thanks to finally winning a crucial game. Who do you think has more pressure on them? Atlanta whose gotten farther than anyone believed they could and finally won an important game or San Fran who have now become the early favorites to win it all? Atlanta wins.
Sunday @ 5:30 PM
Line: New England by 9
To say there is bad blood between these two teams is an understatement. Baltimore wants to avenge their loss to the Patriots in the AFC Championship from last year, while New England and it's fan base are still livid over losing to Baltimore earlier this season by 1 point, which in a roundabout way cost them the overall #1 seed in the AFC. In that game from week 3, Joe Flacco eviscerated NE's defense to the tune of 382 yards and 3 TD's, while New England was penalized an ungodly 24 times. Bill Belichick was not pleased with the result, even grabbing an officials arm after the game had ended.
Both squads' "faces of the franchise", Ray Lewis for Baltimore and Tom Brady for New England, are either retiring or reaching the twilight of their careers. Sure, Tom Brady had another stellar season, but his numbers were down across the board. Remember he is 35, which means regardless of talent, he's on the downside of his career. Ray Lewis, in case you've been living in a cave on the moon, is retiring, so both teams have an overwhelming anxiety to win now, which can aid AND hinder their play.
Weather and homefield will not come into account at all. Both defenses are a wash. Baltimore has a better running back tandem, while New England has better wide recievers/tight ends.
It all comes down to one player...Joe Flacco.
I've given up on guessing how good Flacco really is. During the regular season he was awful at times, and yet in back to back do-or-die playoff games he has shown flashes of greatness and clutchiness(not sure if this is word).
Whose leading the playoffs in QB rating? Flacco with an astonishing 120.0, while Tom Brady is firmly in 2nd with 115. Then there is a substantial drop off to 3rd place Russell Wilson with 102.4(who obviously can't improve is numbers this year). They are the only 3 with a rating over 100.
So we've got the top 2 QB's in the playoffs gunning against each other, while each of their respective defenses attempt to play rope-a-dope and just absorb the blows. Getting back to Flacco, which one shows up determines everything. If "past two weeks" Flacco shows, New England is in deep trouble. If "shaky-flaky, big-mistakey" Flacco shows up Baltimore is toast.
My prediction?
Shaky-Flaky rears his ugly head, tosses 1 or 2 untimely interceptions, and New England returns to the Super Bowl for the 6th time in the Brady/Belichick era.
Thoughts, comments, questions? Your predictions? Send 'em to me at popculturebadger@gmail.com
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