First things first. If you havent read part 1 of "Heading to Canton", do so now. Its a great jumping off point and helps set the stage for this post. You wouln't enjoy watching a movie after missing the first 45 minutes would you? I'll hold on while you read it...
Did you read it? Good.
Lets get started.
In Part 1, I went over the men who we see on a weekly basis in the NFL whom I consider locks to enter the Hall of Fame. In the this post, I will touch upon the guys who are practically there, but may have things holding them back or just havent put up HoF numbers in their career...yet. Some may even have some off the field issues that could deep-six any chance of entering the hallowed halls.
I'm changing up the process for this post. With each guy, I'll list the pro's and con's for their HoF resumes as well as their probability, when all is said and done, of getting a bronze bust. The list is in descending order, i.e. for the players, #1 is a practical lock, where #8's chance are higher than most but far from a lock. Got it?
Did you do the writing exercise from part 1? I hope you said yes, because I'm asking you to do it again. There are 8 players total, broken down like this: (3 QB's, 1 WR, 2 LB's, 1 DE, and 1 CB.). Once again I'll wait as you write down your guesses...
Finished? Good. Strap in and prepare to kiss the next hour or two of your life good bye!
1. Eli Manning
team: New York Giants
Pro's: 2 Super Bowl wins(XLII, XLVI see Tom Coughlin's section from part 1 for magnitude/ridiculousness of one of the those wins), 2 Super Bowl MVPs, All time leader in NY Giants history in passing TDs, field general of two of the greatest post season runs in NFL HISTORY
Cons: 77-56 overall regular season record(.578), 73 fumbles(8.1 average PER YEAR, including a mind boggling 13 in 2007 AND 2009), 205 TDs-144 INTs(1.7 TD-INT ratio), 230.9 yds passing per game, 82.3 lifetime QB rating
Eli Manning just missed inclusion on the locks list from part 1. I hemmed and hawed over his inclusion until I started going over his lifetime stats. Uggh...Raise your hand if you would want your franchise QB to throw out those stats over a 9 year playing period(Cardinals and Raiders fans, you can put your hands down. You don't count.). Much like his coach Tom Coughlin, Manning has been pulling his Jeckyl & Hyde act for so many years, NFL fans have given up on guessing which Eli is going to show up on a week to week basis.
No other stat better illustrates this then looking at his playoff record on a year by year basis. If you looked at his overall playoff career record of 8-3, you'd think he was one of the greatest QB's of the last 20 years and yet...
2005: 0-1
2006: 0-1
2007: 4-0
2008: 0-1
2011: 4-0
Holy feast or famine, Batman!
So how in the Hell is Eli the first player or coach in line outside of the Hall of Fame?
It all comes back to the those two playoff runs. I'm 32 and have truthfully watched every Super Bowl since the mid to late 80's. That's roughly 25 or so Super Bowls and Eli won 2 of the 5 most memorable ones I can remember(excluding the Packer's 3 trips of course), and HoF voters like most fans have a very limited memory. They remember the amazing and historic. They remember the plays that have been over analyzed and debated thousands of times on sports debate shows and in newspaper columns( If anyone is reading this in 20 years, newspapers were printed collections of daily stories that kept the general public informed on current events. Kind of like physical copies of the internet.) Unless he DRASTICALLY improves his stats or carries the Giants to another Super Bowl, chances are he won't even get in on his first attempt, but if he lingers long enough for a vast swath of the old guard of HoF voters to die off and be replaced by voters closer to my age, he will get in.
In the 2007 postseason, he was the closest sports equivalent of David; flinging a singular pebble at the NFL's Goliath, destroying any chance the Patriots' had of snatching the "best team ever" title from the 1972 Miami Dolphins. And then he repeated the feat, on a less historic level(Patriots could "only" muster a 13-3 record that year. Ho-Hum) but a historical level nonetheless.
That's what we will remember about Eli; holding the Lombardi trophy over the battered corpse of the New England Patriots TWICE over a 4 year span. We'll forget his penchant for fumbling, his ludicriously average QB rating, and downright stomach churning TD/INT ratio; and I'm sure that is what Eli wants us to remember about him. He wants us to remember that in the two biggest games of his career(including the biggest Super Bowl upset EVER) he came through in spades.
**Packers fan note: An Eli lead Giants team scares the piss out of me. In his last two games against the Pack(both in the last calendar year), he and the Giants have put up these numbers:
Eli Manning: 579 yards, 6 TD's, 1 INT, 58.7% completions, average score of the games:37.5 Giants-15 Packers. Nothing like averaging a 21 point beatdown!
If the Giants make the playoffs, they are the last team I want the Packers playing. I'd rather play the Patriots, Texans, Falcons, Broncos, or 49ers before going up against the Giants again.
Think of it this way, if you had gotten into two horrific car accidents at the same traffic intersection within a year, you'd do everything in your power to avoid that intersection completely. The mental and physical damage just scars you for life, and if you could not avoid traveling that same intersection, you would automatically assume the worse was going to happen AGAIN whenever you pulled up to it. That's how I feel about playing the Giants for the THIRD time in a year.
*The next two players have put up stellar career numbers but have had a handful of off the field incidences that have, shall we kindly say, hindered their HoF chances. If voters seperate their on the field heroics from their off the field "activities", they have a great chance at NFL immortality.
2. Ben Roethlisberger
team: Pittsburgh Steelers
Pro's: 2 Super Bowl wins(XL, XLIII), 3 Super Bowl Appearances, 92.7 lifetime QB rating(9th all-time), 63.2% completions(11th), 29 game winning drives(14th), 22 comebacks(15th), 86-38 regular season record(.693)10-4 playoff record, has made playoffs 6 out 8 full seasons, youngest QB to EVER win a Super Bowl, just check out his wikipedia page here, and scroll down to the NFL record's section
Con's: 187 TD's-106 INT's(1.57 TD/INT ratio), 235.9 yds per game, Lowest passer rating for a Super Bowl winning QB(22.6, 9 of 21, 0 TDs, 2 INT's in Super Bowl XL), one idiotic nearly career ending injury, and uh...how do I put this? Two sexual assault allegations
Ben Roethlisberger has proven several things about himself throughout his playing career.
First, he's a winner no matter what game situation you throw him into. You need to look no further then his overall record of 96-42(.695). He's proven his toughness again and again, picking his body off the field countless times after seemingly being obliterated by a sack or hit that would kill most men.
He was the first of a new generation of QB's; giant 6-1/2 foot tall field generals built like linebackers with the footwork of a running back. In other words, he's dumptrucked more cornerbacks, safeties, and linebackers than any other QB in history. If your team played the Steelers and "Big Ben" decided to pull the ball down and run for it, you immediately averted your eyes, knowing a player on your defense was about to end up on his back after attempting to make a solo tackle. This video demonstrates why he still is every defensive coordinator's nightmare...
He was probably the first player in NFL history who after his first 2 years, was inarguably on his way to become a lock for the Hall of Fame. All he would've had to do was perform at a moderate level for another 7-8 years and he was a shoo-in. He didn't even need a second Super Bowl win(which he would get of course). That's how much respect and good will he had built up in less than 24 months of playing time. He was that amazing and revolutionary.
But then Ben seemed to get a little too cocky and self confident. He bought into his hype. Everyone was guilty. Fans, media, and even members of the league were building his marble pedestal higher and higher. We all should have seen what was coming next, but NO ONE could expect how bad it was going to get.
His off the field troubles started off small and self destructive before blooming into full blown douchedom.
Summer of 2006: Ben's living large. He's 24, played nearly two full seasons, and just put together a mind-blowing "We'll probably never see this again" record of 28-4 in his first 32 games(.875 winning percentage!). He led Pittsburgh to an astounding 15-1 record during his ROOKIE season. He ended the Patriots NFL record 21 game winning streak. He's already got a Super Bowl win and established himself as one of the top 3 QB's in the entire league. Once again, all he has to do is average 9-10 wins a year for 7 or so years(a lock with the vaunted Pittsburgh defense playing the other half of the game), average say 25 TD's and keep his interception rate around the league average, provide minimal yardage and wait for the call from Canton. Simple as that, Ben!
But Ben decides to get on his motorcycle without his helmet, ride through downtown Pittsburgh and re-enact this scene from "Last Crusade"...
Injuries sustained from the accident: Broken upper jaw, broken lower jaw, two teeth lost, several more teeth chipped, broken nose. His injuries were so bad, people who rushed to help him COULDN'T RECOGNIZE HIM, even after he identified himself as "Ben". Translation: His face was mangled so badly, that the most popular athlete on the most popular team in town, whose face was probably plastered on advertisements on every street corner, was UNRECOGNIZABLE.
*Playing devil's advocate here; the accident wasn't his fault(a car pulled in front of him), and athletes make dumb mistakes, especially in the offseason when they don't have coaches and team officals hovering over them 24/7. On the flip side virtually all pro athletes have clauses within their contracts prohibiting them from "dangerous" activities like riding motorcycles, jet-ski's, bungee jumping, etc. This is the first example of Ben basically screaming, "I'm the king of the World!" like Jack from "Titanic", except he then immediately fell overboard and landed on an iceberg with his FACE.
I would imagine the only people upset with Ben's decision were the fan's of Pittsburgh. The rest of us were high-fiving ourselves knowing that the biggest piece on one of the elite teams in the league just took himself out.
I just imagined Aaron Rodgers doing the same thing in the offseason after Super Bowl XLV and I broke out in terror sweat.
The injury clearly and not surprisingly affected his play as he had the worst playing year of his career in 2006, putting up a putrid 7-8 record(although a 7-8 record from a guy whose face was permanently scraped onto a downtown street like a piece of Banksy art is pretty amazing), throwing 23 completions to guys NOT wearing Steeler jerseys, and establishing the worst QB rating of his career, 75.4(still the worst QB rating he's had, and the 23 interceptions are 8 MORE than he's thrown in any season he's played.) The 2006 season can't end so enough for Steelers fans.
Summer of 2009:Steelers fans rejoice(and the rest of the league curses) as "Big Ben is back with a vengeance! The 2007 and 2008 seasons mark a return to greatness(not at the level he started his career, but as I stated earlier, we will NEVER see a meteoric rise to start a career than Ben's first two years; although Andrew Luck, RGIII, and Russell Wilson have all thrown their names in the ring for 2nd best start) as Roethlisberger averages 11 wins,a 92.1 QB rating, and gets his second Super Bowl win. "The ship's course has been righted!" Steelers fans scream.
Then a story spreads like wildfire across the league, televsion, and internet. "Ben Roethlisberger accused of sexual assault". His motorcycle accident gave Leno, Letterman, and Kimmel joke fodder. The second incident basically elevated Roethlisberger to a "leiutenant of the Anti-Christ" level. When your headlining CNN and it wasn't because you pulled someone out of a burning car, you've fucked up, big time.
As the days and weeks passed, more details of the incident began to come to light. A female co-worker of the accuser came forward and delivered a sworn statement that the accuser had told her she had consensual sex with Ben in the hopes of getting pregnant. Ben was exonerated, but no one could argue the fact that Roethlisberger had once again put himself in a situation that had a very good chance of torpedoing his slowly decaying good name. He didn't so much as dodge a bullet but was grazed by it. His reputation was scarred regardless of how the judicial system ruled(Think OJ but not on the same horrific level.) and people began to look at Ben with a very jaded lens. Pittsburgh fans at this point were practically begging Steelers management to lock Ben in a padded cell deep in the bowels of Heinz Field in the offseason in order to avert any potential future "missteps". Due to international imprisonment laws, this would not be an option. Pittsburgh fans in the near future would curse this choice. But before that would happen...
March 2010: Big Ben is back!("Again?! Son of a bitch!" screamed the fans of the other 31 teams.) Roethlisberger put together his best offensive season yet in 2009; tossing 26 TD's against only 12 INTs in addition to a phenomenal 4,328 yards passing(total QB rating: 100.5), although it only gets Pittsburgh a 9-7 record and a seat on the couch for the entire post season. And yet, there is a sliver of hope for the future in the Steel City. Until a "Manhattan Project" level bomb destroys any faith a sane person had left in regards to Ben's decision making abilities.
For the second time in less than EIGHT MONTHS, a story hits the news with a disturbingly similiar title. "Ben Roethlisberger accused of sexual assualt for a second time."
BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOMMMMMMMMMMM!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Good-bye any good will Roethlisberger had left. Once again, details slowly emerged about the night in question. Except this time there was no witness with evidence to exonerate Ben. I won't get into the creepy ass details, if you aren't familiar with the story, you can read about it here.
He was never formally charged with the crime, but the NFL, after reviewing the evidence, STILL decided to suspend him for 6 games. A little fishy isnt it? Here you have one of the arguably 10 "best" players in the NFL playing for one of the flagship franchises, never actually charged with a crime, and yet the league still decided they wanted him as far away from possible for nearly 40% of the season?
Basically the NFL head honchos said in no particular way-"We've reviewed the evidence. We don't know how in the hell he wiggled out of this(Oh wait...the law enforcement officer that responded to the scene who did everything short of having his own Roethlisberger jersey signed may have played a part. Read that part here), God only knows what he has done that hasn't come to light yet. We're just going to keep him away from the league for as long as we can without getting sued. It's best for everyone."
The rotten, worm infested cherry on top to this story? The lawyer who defended him was the same one that defended Ray Lewis!(More on him very soon!)
So what has Big Ben done since that life altering day in March of 2010? He's regained his form of course.
Ben Roethlisberger(2010-2012)*: 28-14 overall record(2-2 playoff record, including his 3rd Super Bowl appearance; a loss to the Packers in Super Bowl XLV. I'm going to go out on a limb that 99.9% of casual female fans were rooting for the Pack), throwing, on average, 20 TD's and less than 10 INTs, roughly 3,500 yds/season, as well as keeping his QB rating above 90 each season.
*Still two games left for him to boost these numbers.
So where do I stand on Roethlisberger? I won't deny he's one of the 10-15 most influential players in the NFL over the last 20 years, and I don't think any fan who follows the league could argue with that. But when it boils down to it, there were three times in the last 5 years where Roethlisberger threw proper decision making out the window, and decided "Screw it, I'm Ben Roethlisberger. What's the worst that could happen?" And unfortunately in each and every instance, the worst did happen(once it wasnt his fault(accident), once it kind of was(1st sexual assault), and once it was undeniably his fault(2nd assault claim)) and that may cost him what could have been a legacy that few have ever had. It's impossible to overlook those three turning points and I think the Hall of Fame voters will feel the same way.
Percentage Chance he get's in the HoF(If he continues at this pace and keeps out of trouble): 70%-80%
Percentage Chance he get's in if he wins another Super Bowl or two, immediately retires, keeps his nose clean, donates several millions of dollars to RAINN, and volunteers several hours a week to a women's shelter: 100%(The only way he's a lock. That's how much he's tainted himself.)
This brings us to player #3 who Ben has quite a bit in common with.
3. Ray Lewis
team:Baltimore Ravens
Pro's: 13 Pro Bowls(every year since 1997 except 2002 & 2005), 7X AP First Team All-Pro, 2X Defensive Player of the Year(2000,2003), 1 Super Bowl Win, 1 Super Bowl MVP, Most games started by a middle/inside linebacker EVER(227), Quickest player to reach the 20 Sack/20 INT club, Quickest player to reach the 30 Sack/30 INT club, ONLY member of the 40 Sack/30 INT club, over 2,000 career tackles
Con's: He "may" have helped his friends get away with killing TWO people(I'm going to go out onto the thickest limb in history and say this is the biggest hinderance to anyone's HoF chances EVER.)
Ray Lewis has put together the greatest defensive career of the last 30 years. He has been scarily consistent on the field, and his number of AP First Team All Pro selections is a testament to this fact(I don't put to much faith in Pro Bowl selections, as its more of a glorified popularity contest). But his legacy will never escape the fact that their are two less people on the planet and Ray Lewis almost certainly had a factor in it.
Here's the story and outcome. I'll let you decide if he had anything to do with the tragedy.
After attending a Super Bowl party in 2000, a fight broke out between Lewis' entourage(those never get athletes in trouble) and a different group of people. The result of said fight left two people dead of STABBING wounds. 11 days later, Lewis and two of his friends were indicted on murder and aggravated assualt charges. A key piece of evidence, the suit Lewis was wearing at the time of the murders, has yet to be found. Nothing suspicious about that...
Lewis' attorneys eventually got him a plea deal where he basically sold his friends down the river in exchange for the murder charges being dropped against him as well as him copping to a far less career-ending charge of obstruction of justice. He got the maximum amount of probation allowed by the Justice department, and the NFL fined him $250,000, the most EVER for a non-substance abuser in NFL history.
His two friends were eventually aquitted due to lack of evidence(Like say a bloodied suit). Four years later, Lewis settled out of court with the families of the two victims for an unknown monetary amount(no sign of guilt there!).
He was so maligned and untouchable that when he won the Super Bowl MVP, Disney had Trent Dilfer say the famous "I'm going to Disney World!" line after the Super Bowl(Trent's line from the game: 12 of 25 for 153 yards and ONE TD), the first and only time the MVP didnt say get to say it. Good choice by Disney on the matter as if Lewis had said it, everyone at Disney World, including Walt's cryogenically frozen head, would have immediately scattered like roaches at lightspeed out of the parks.
Here we are, 12 years after the incident in question, and the first thing I still think about when Ray Lewis' name gets mentioned are those murders.
In a sliver of fairness, it seems that since that awful day, Lewis has made dramatic strides to do right by society. He's heavily involved in numerous charities in Baltimore and has engendered enough goodwill that the city has named a street after him.
The fact of the matter is though that no matter what good he does both on and off the field, his name will forever be marked by that awful day in which two people lost their lives.
*Probably not a good sign for the integrity of the NFL if you could play a game of "Who am I?" with another football fan, ask these four questions, and still not have a definitive answer:
1.Do you play in the AFC North? YES
2.Are you the undisputed catalyst of your team whenever you take the field? YES
3.Are you one of the most successful players at your position ever? YES
4.Is there a chance you committed a crime so heinous, Satan is jealous of you? YES
(Obviously the last two guys on this list are the only possible answers. A case could be made for Brady Quinn with his crime of stealing 7.5 MILLION DOLLARS in guaranteed money from his rookie contract with Cleveland, but he doesnt play in the AFC North anymore, and he will NEVER be considered a YES for question #3, even in a Hypothetical "I am Legend" situation where he wanders the desolate streets of America with his trusty dog. Chances are the dog would still be a better QB.
Congratulations! We've made it through the depressing, "Guy's you wouldn't trust alone with any of your loved one's but they still might make it to the Hall of Fame" section. If you've lost all faith in humanity after those last two guys I wouldn't fault you. Luckily the rest of the guys on this list aren't being held back because of off the field evilness.
4. Ed Reed
team:Baltimore Ravens
Pro's: 8 Pro Bowl selections, 8X AP First Team All-Pro, 2004 AP Defensive Player of the Year, 3X led or tied league for INT's in a year(2004,2008,2010), 13 non offensive TDs(5th all time), 61 INTs(10th), 1,541 INT return yards(1st)
Con's: Played Scottie Pippen to Ray Lewis' Jordan for entire career
Make no mistake, in the first 6 years of his career Ed Reed quickly and effortlessy established himself as a top 5 defensive player in the league. Unfortunately for his legacy(and to a greater extent FORTUNATELY for his career numbers), he has played his entire career with Ray Lewis. Hence the Pippen/Jordan comparision.
I'll break it down for you like this. Any quarterback who has played Baltimore in the last eight years or so, has had a decision to make when they step back to pass and three options to choose from.
1. Check down and pass it to a running back, or
2. pass it short over the middle to a tight end/ wide reciever running a short route, or
3. pass it farther down field to a WR
Thanks to Ray Lewis patrolling the first 10 or 15 yards of the playing field with the reckless intensity of a rabid wolf, the vast majority of QB's have chosen option #3. Lewis is still such a dominating force that his play alone eliminates the first two options on virtually every play.
This enables Ed Reed to have an inordinate number of passes thrown his way which send his INT numbers into the upper stratosphere. Those skewed numbers cannot be ignored. Taking nothing away from Ed Reed, but he has been the safer option for opposing QB's for his ENTIRE career.
Going back to the Pippen/Jordan analogy, during their prime when the Bulls would come into town and obliterate anything that stood in their path like the F-5 "Finger of God" tornado from Twister, whenever the Bulls were on offense, the opposing team would ALWAYS put their best defender on Jordan, often putting two guys on him leaving someone else wide open. Sometimes that would be Pippen.
Opposing teams were basically saying "We know Pippen is good, and he may hurt us if we don't guard him properly, but Jordan will undoubtly KILL us if we attempt the same thing."
Now reverse offense for defense, and change basketball to football. Voila! You have the Reed/Lewis dynamic.
Reed, like Pippen was in his prime, is a great player but he's inarguably not even the best player on his team. Being the lesser of two evils definitely has it's advantages, especially numbers wise, but football fans will always wonder how good of a career Ed Reed would have if he isn't lining up next to Ray Lewis. It's indisputable.
Some players were created for the sole intent of throwing an entire team on their shoulders and carrying them to the promised land. Jordan and Lewis are too such example and proved it with championship rings(Do I need to remind you again that the Raven's QB during their Super Bowl year was Trent Dilfer?).
*Pippen had a chance to prove to his doubters that he could be the man when Jordan retired(the 1st time, not the second time) and in the "Post-Jordan" years, the farthest he was able to lead the Bull's in the post-season was...a 7 game series loss in the Eastern Conference Semi's to the Knicks. A few years later, Jordan returned and the Bulls rattled off their second "three-peat". So, number of championships Pippen won with Jordan, 6. Number without Jordan carrying the load, 0. You won't see a more cut and dry pattern in sports.
Unfortunately for Reed, He may never have the oppurtunity that Pippen had to show what he could do as a team's #1 weapon, but looking at what happened with Pippen perhaps this is a good thing. If the entire defensive weight of the Raven's was dropped upon his shoulders right from the beginning, who knows if he even becomes a well known name amongst die-hard football fans.
My guess? Keep Ed Reed on the Ravens, but remove Lewis and I guarantee his numbers get cut by 30%-50% across the board. They say life is all about being in the right place at the right time, and no current football player better exemplifies this than Ed Reed. To be fair to Ed Reed he has never been charged with MURDER, so he does have that going for him. Maybe I should have put that in the Pro's section...
Percent Chance he get's in the HoF if Ray Lewis retires, he keeps playing for a few more years, and we see no sizable dip in stats and thusly proving that Lewis' effect on opponents didn't quintuple the number of passes thrown his way: 85%-95%
*Baltimore fans must hate the fact that even with two of the top 10-15 defensive players of the last fifteen years, they haven't won a championship let alone gotten to the Super Bowl since the miraculous "Dilfer-led" run in 2000. These things tend to happen when you have to go through either Peyton Manning or Tom Brady, sometimes BOTH, just to get to the Super Bowl.
5. Jared Allen
teams:Kansas City Chiefs, Minnesota Vikings
Pro's: 4 Pro Bowl selections, 4X AP First Team All Pro, 2011 Defensive player of the Year, lead the league in sacks twice(2007,2011), led his conference in sacks three times(2X NFC, 1X AFC), 114.0 career sacks(16th most all time, most in league since 2004) 22.0 sacks in 2011(2nd most behind Michael Strahan's 22.5 sacks in 2001, the last of which Brett Favre basically gift wrapped for him during the last game of the season by basically collapsing in front of him. Wait..Why in the Hell am I defending a Viking by throwing a Packer's legend under the bus?! Let's just agree that Allen is the righful owner of the sack record, like Roger Maris should still have the single season HR record in baseball and move on), averaging nearly 13 sacks PER YEAR in the 8 full seasons he's played(excluding 2012), only 9 seasons played so far
Con's: 61-67 regular season record of teams w/ Jared Allen excluding 2012, 1-3 playoff record, only 8 PBAP's*(The other two defensive players on this list ahead of Allen: Ray Lewis-20 PBAP's, Ed Reed-16 PBAP's), a handful of run-ins with the law(3 DUI's) only 9 seasons played so far(hopefully you caught how this fact is on BOTH lists. Hang on were getting there)
*PBAP-Pro Bowl or AP 1st team selection
*Packer's Fan Personal Con's for Jared Allen: His lame "calf roping" sack dance, the fact he plays for the fucking Vikings
I have to admit, I'm not sure if Jared Allen made this list because of actual career play or the fact that twice a season I get to see him blow past my Packer's offensive lineman routinely and obliterate Aaron Rodgers. It's debatable. But there are certain indisputible facts that point to his legitimate Hall of Fame candidacy(the fact that I, as a diehard packer's fan, would even consider him HoF worthy is fact in it of itself).
So let's lay it all out there. I wrote before how he's only played 8 full seasons and this is such an important point in illuminating certain stats when viewed through that lens it needs to be stated again and again(In other words, be prepared to be bludgeoned with the "only 8 full seasons played" fact several times in the next couple of paragraphs).
Fact 1: In only eight full seasons, he's led the entire league in sacks TWICE. Translation: 25% of of the time during his career, he could look up and see his name at the very top of the sacks leader list. If we extend it to how many times he led his conference in sacks, it jumps to 37%.
Fact 2: He's led the AFC AND NFC in sacks(within a five year period nonetheless:2007(AFC), 2011(NFC)). Translation: He destroyed one conference's set of QB's, was traded immediately(because, of course the Chiefs are idiots), quickly acclimated to his new surroundings and feasted on a new set of QB's.
Fact 3: HE HAD 22 FUCKING SACKS IN 2011. I hate to espose the accomplishments of a rival team's player, but those are Madden-like numbers. Do you know how many PBAP's were on the Vikings, offense AND defense, last year outside of Allen? ZERO. Translation: Teams playing the Vikings knew for a fact he was their only quality player, often double or even triple teaming him, and he was still blowing through dudes like Wal-Mart brand kleenex.
Fact 4: His worst sack total for a year? 7.5(his third year with Chief's, who had finally had enough time to get their Chief stink all over him). Next year with the Chief's? 15.5(1st in the NFL). Since that "awful" 7.5 sack season in 2006 his WORST sack total was 11 in 2010.
Fact 5: Average sacks per year his first 3 seasons: 9.1(2004-2006). Average sacks per season since: 14.4(2007-2012. And there are still 2 games left for him this season) If we drop his sub par NINE sacks he has this year and just concentrate on 2007-2011 his average goes up to 15.5. Translation: He's added 6 sacks PER YEAR on average since those first 3 Chiefs' seasons. Uber-Translation: Not only is he getting better, he took a leap in career numbers that would give Carl Lewis an orgasm.
Fact 6: He should've had at least one Super Bowl appearance on his resume. Unfortunately for Vikings they apparently forget what "The Gunslinger" was capable of. I'll let this video demonstrate:
If you've read part 1 of the "Heading to Canton" posts(Which you should've by now. I've only asked you to 1 million times so far), then you know how much I love to play the Hypothetical card in regards to what a player's career may look like. You probably have guessed I'm doing it again for Jared Allen(remember he's only 30). Here we go:
Sacks: 191(Moving him to THIRD All-time)
Sacks: 241(Ladies and Gentlemen! Meet your new NFL career sacks leader, putting himself FORTY ONE sacks of current number 1, Bruce Smith's 200)
*For both hypothetical situations, I gave Allen 2 more sacks for this year. Not a stretch by any imagination. In fact, he would only finish the 2012 season with 11, 3.5 below his average from the last 5 years.
"Hold the phones!There's no way he's able to stick around that long!" You're screaming. To which say, "Shut up and listen".
Bruce Smith: 106 sacks(at 30), 200 total, 18 seasons, 11.1 sacks per year
Reggie White: 110(at 30)*, 198 total, 16 seasons, 12.3 sacks per year
Kevin Greene: 72.5(at 30), 160 total, 15 seasons, 10.6 sacks per year
Jared Allen: 116 sacks, 9 seasons, 12.8 sacks per year
*Reggie White had an astounding 39 sacks combined between the 1987 & 1988 season
Did you notice each guy on the list's career numbers flowed a little differently from pre-age 30(the general halfway point of their careers) to post-age 30? Smith stayed pretty consistent, White did most of his damage early on, and Greene's number actually went up. Percentage wise, 44% of White's sacks came after he turned 30, Smith got 47% of his after 30, and Greene got a mindblowing 55% after 30. If you average these three gentlemen's sack percent after 30, its right at 48%. In other words, most stellar defensive linemen's sack number's stay disturbingly consistent throughout their careers.
How many sacks does Allen still have coming if he's only got 52% of his career total? 107. Add that to his current total, and his career statline could very well look like this: 223 Sacks(#1 ever by 23 sacks), 17 seasons, 13.1 sacks per year.*
*In the grand scheme of things, we may be taking some giant leaps of faith in Allen's consistency and career length, but that fact that these numbers are entirely in the realm of possibility is astonishing and down right scary.
Given the numbers I've just thrown at you, the second hypothetical situation doesn't seem so implausible now does it? Defensive lineman outside of kickers, consistently have the longest careers of any position because of two undeniable facts:
1. They virtually never have to run more than 5 or 6 yards per play compared with a cornerback or linebacker who on average run close to 20-30 yards per play while chasing WR's, TE's, and RB's. Translation/Analogy: Which car is going to last longer? The one driven 30 miles a day or the one driven 100-200 miles per day?
2. They are the tacklers not the ones being tackled. And generally, they have 50-80 pounds more then the unfortunate soul they're decleating. When your dealing physical punishment instead of receiving it, you tend to last longer.
If a defensive lineman can dodge those freak accidents where a teammate falls on the back of their legs, twisting them gruesomely, they will have long healthy careers. It's a fact.
So why is he higher on the list? Because, as stated before, he is possibly only halfway through his career and all it take is one freak injury to end his legacy. Add in the fact that the total regular season record of Jared Allen teams is 61-67(.476 winning precentage), and he's only been in the postseason three times total and it's tough to justify anything better than the percentage I've given him below.
The next player, inconceivable as it may sound could actually have a career better than what Jared Allen may end up with(this player has only 3 less sacks than Allen and has played once less year), but his potential numbers come with three huge "negatives" that could end up costing him in the long run as compared with Allen. Those three things? Size, Position, and Mileage.
6. DeMarcus Ware
team: Dallas Cowboys
Pro's: 6 Pro Bowl selections, 4X AP First Team All-Pro, 2X league leader in sacks(2008,2010), 2008 NFL Defensive Player of the Year, 111.0 career sacks, 31 forced fumbles
Con's: Position, Size, Mileage, the fact that God hates the Cowboys because their owned by Satan(ask Tony Romo and his 3,000 concussions or near concussions)
Comparing Ware's career numbers and Allen's, they are nearly identical and he's done it in one less season(Although Ware and Allen are the same age). He should be ahead of Allen then right?
That clip will never get old. Continuing on though, Ware has been a BEAST so far in his career. The number and accolades already lauded upon him, speak to that. But those 4 items on his "Con's" list cannot be ignored.
In fact you could roll all of the first three into one giant ball of "detrimental to his legacy" reason. Because of his position as a linebacker(a pass rushing LB, but a LB no less), compared with that of Allen's DE position, he's forced to do more. Ware may have to cover an offensive player in a passing situation 15-20 PER GAME. I doubt Allen has covered 15-20 WR/TE/RB's TOTAL in his career. That's a lot of mileage and wear/tear on his tires. Inevitably all that running and moving around begins to take it's toll on a players legs, especially the knees, until a player has more cartildge in his nose than in his legs.
For a player like Ware whose dominance is dependent on his explosiveness during pass rushing situations, that mileage is NEVER a good thing. There is a reason you rarely see LB's playing at a high level into their mid thirties(freaks of nature like Ray Lewis aside). After too many miles and too many hits on similar sized players(in Ware's case, this is limited to TE's and bruising running backs), the human body begins to disintegrate from the legs up. Ware is also far more likely to get into an accidental helmet to helmet collision at top speed than Allen. Mix all of these reasons together to see why Allen is more likely to enter Canton. It stands to reason that Allen's career will not only last far longer than Ware's, but he's in a position to keep his numbers at a "Hall of Fame" level.
It's unfortunate but its the truth. Of the top 16 career leaders in sacks, FOUR played LB the majority of their careers(Kevin Greene-3rd, Lawrence Taylor-9th, Rickey Jackson-11th, Derrick Thomas-12th). Thats a 3-1 advantage. DE/DL's are just put into more positions to make sacks then LB's. History bears this out.
Of the four linebacker's, the longest careers belonged to Jackson and Greene who both topped out at 15 years. Taylor only made it to year 13, while Derrick Thomas' career was cut drastically short because of tragic car accident after his 11th season. Even removing Thomas career season's played, the other three only averaged 14 seasons. The average seasons played by the top three DE/DL on the career sacks list? Almost 16 and a half(as written earlier, Bruce Smith played 18 seasons, Reggie White played 16, and #4 overall leader Chris Doleman played 15).
Compare those career averages and you see that the elite DE/DL will play 2 more full seasons than a similiarily elite LB. This doesnt even take into account how quickly LBs' sack numbers fall of a cliff during those last two years, where, as proven in the Jared Allen section, DE/DL's never see such a precipitous drop. It's startling.
Taking nothing away from Ware, but numbers are such a huge factor in Hall of Fame voting. If voters can remember what was asked of him on a week-to-week basis as a LB compared to a DE like Allen there's a very good chance he'll have a bronze bust in Canton.
7. Reggie Wayne
Pro's: 964 career receptions(10th all-time), 13,023 career receiving yards(14th), 78 carrer receiving TD's(24th),7 PBAP's, 1 Super Bowl win(XLI), 2007 NFL leader in receiving yards
Con's: Only 1 1st team All-Pro in 12 years, played with Peyton Manning or Andrew Luck for entire career, only exceeded 100 catches 4 times in entire career, averaging 6.5 TD's per year
Reggie Wayne is one tough nut to crack in regards to his Hall of Fame chances. He's put up decent numbers throughout his career, but has never dominated the league. He's played half of his games in a dome which benefits WR's more greatly than any other position in the field. He's had the benefit of playing with the greatest QB of the last 20+ years in Peyton Manning, and when the Colts parted ways with Manning they tanked the entire 2011 season in order to get the best QB prospect of the last 30 YEARS in Andrew Luck.
He does have a Super Bowl ring, and actually seems to be geeting better, evident by his 13 catch, 212 yard lambasting of the Packers in which the Colts came back from a 21-3 halftime deficit and dumptrucked Green Bay. Getting back to his diametrically opposed career numbers, let's compare the first 6 years of his career to his second 6.
First six years(2001-2006): 390 catches, 28 TD's, 5,474 yd's
per year AVG: 65 receptions, 4.6 TD's, 912 yds
Second six years(2007-2012): 574 catches, 50 TD's, 7,549 yds's
per year AVG: 95 receptions, 8.3 TD's, 1258 yds
Take a deep breath and digest those HUGE per year jumps across the board. Percentage-wise his catches went up 46%, TD's went up an unfathomable 80%, and yds per year went up a "pedestrian" 38%.
That's a "Tom Hanks"-like uber-positive career change. Follow along with me; in those first 6 years Wayne's numbers were positively "Joe vs. the Volcano/Money Pit", second half numbers? He's "Forrest Gump/Saving Private Ryan". So why the big change? In two words:
MARVIN HARRISON
If you're not a football fan, you're wondering "WHO THE HELL IS MARVIN HARRISON!?". For the diehards out there, you know that Harrison is inarguably the 2nd GREATEST receiver of all time behind Jerry Rice. For receiving records across the board, its Rice then Harrison, then a giant Coyote-Roadrunner cliff drop to the next set of guys. Harrison was that good. Here's his Pro Football Reference page. Bask in the glory that was Marvin Harrison. If you look at only one season, check out his 2002 season below:
Marvin Harrison(2002)-143 RECEPTIONS(most catches EVER in a season. 2nd most in a season? 123. So he had 20 more than 2nd place, which is like 2 additional GREAT games for a WR), 1722 YARDS(4th most EVER in a season. Was 3rd best ever until Calvin Johnson decided to decimate defending secondaries like the Black Plague this year)
In other words, in 2002 Harrison won approximately 78% of fantasy leagues for his owners that year. So what happened to Harrison? He blew out his knee early in 2007(the year Wayne's numbers JUMPED), passed the proverbially baton to Wayne, retired a year later, and waited for Canton to call.
So Wayne inherited a Peyton Manning who was just entering the prime of his career, just won his first Super Bowl, and had spent his entire career honing his QB's skills with Harrison. Harrison gets hurt, Wayne steps into the best situation a WR could ever ask for(elite Peyton+dome), and the rest is history.
Will the Hall overlook the god-sent package Wayne received in 2007? Its tough to tell, but if he keeps up the pace he's established since that 2007 season(which is a distinct possibility, considering he now has Andrew Luck throwing to him) he has a pretty good chance.
Extrapolation Time!
TD's: 100(tied for 20th)
yd's: 16,332(2nd behind Rice)
Even if everything breaks Wayne's way his HoF chances in my opinion would jump to: 75%, much better but not a lock. Why is that you say? Wide Receivers, for whatever reason, have a much more difficult time breaking into Canton. Whether its a positional bias by voters or something else entirely, WR's paths to the HoF are much steeper and more heavily scrutinized than most of their other playing brethern.
8. Drew Brees
teams(2): San Diego Chargers, New Orleans Saints
Pro's: 6 Pro Bowl Selections, 1X AP All Pro, 1 Super Bowl win(XLIV), 1 Super Bowl MVP, 2X AP Offensive Player of the Year, 2004 Comeback Player of the Year, holds record for most passing yards in a season(5,476 yds in 2011), 4,035 career pass completions(8th all-time), 6,149 career pass attempts(10th), 45,919 career passing yards(8th), 324 career passing TD's(6th), 94.3 career QB rating(7th), 270.1 passing yards per game(2nd), put an entire destroyed city/region with no hope left on his back and won them the biggest sporting event in America with a luckless franchise
Con's: 99-70 career record(.585 winning percentage), 36.2 pass attempts per game(2nd most all-time), 23.7 pass completions per game(2nd), 11.4 yds per pass completion(199th ALL-TIME) *Remember the three previous stats for later on*, thrown 15 or more interceptions in a season 7 out of 11 full seasons played, traded in his prime from San Diego to New Orleans, quickly establishing himself as the second coming of Brett Favre(the bad Favre-see below)
Drew Brees, for all intents and purposes, would be nowhere near this list without that magical Super Bowl run in 2009. After the devasting effects of Hurricane Katrina when New Orleans was virtually wiped off the map, Brees become a beacon of hope to an entire region. He took a team in the New Orleans Saints who were widely regarded as one of the perenially worst football teams and led them to the promised land.
Let's be honest for a second, if it wasnt for Hurricane Katrina, the Saints victory would have quickly and quietly been forgotten, but thanks to sports writers and virtually everyone else playing up the "Hope rising from the ashes of a beleaguered city" angle, Brees was practically annointed a saint(no pun intended).
His career numbers are staggering. He's in the top ten of the four most important QB stats, completions, yds, TD's, and QB rating, and yet there's a black cloud hanging over those stats. Look back to the Con's sections again to those three eye opening stats; 2nd most pass attempts per game, 2nd most completions, and the 199th passing yards per completion. Translation: He's chucked more passes per year than all but one guy in NFL HISTORY(#1?, Matthew Stafford! Talk about elite company). He has the 2nd best completion percentage in history, but the guy he's behind, Chad Pennington was NEVER considered one of the top ten QB's in any of his seasons(#3 is Aaron Rodgers, so ummm... yeah) When you're throwing the ball that many times of course your career yards, completions, and TD numbers are going to look good.
There are two other items from the Con's list I want to go over before we're through here. First, the trade from the Chargers to the Saints, which happened right as Brees was entering the classic QB career prime(ages 26-29). In fact at one time he was even benched for DOUG FLUTIE. He eventually regained his starting job, helping SD to a 12-4 record. Even after that magical run, the Chargers who a year prior had gotten Philip Rivers in a draft day trade, decided to part ways with Brees. In fairness, this is mostly San Diego's fault as they jumped the gun to early in drafting Rivers while Brees was still a worthwhile QB.
The second point, Bree's transforming into "Gunslinger Part 2" has happened much more recently and has a chance to absolutely derail his saintly legacy.
As a lifelong fan of the Packer's, I had the priviledge of watching Brett Favre in his prime, when his backyard football style engendered him to Packer's fans and TV announcers alike, while absolutely annoying the piss out of every other football fan on the planet who hated how much gushing we Favre lover's spouted about his "wild west attitude and love of the game" at least 15,000 times per game.
It was all copacetic in Packer land as long as they won. When the Packer's shine dimmed considerably in the early to mid 2000's a fog was lifted and we saw the Brett Favre that everyone else had seen since the beginning, a player who would win you some games with magnificent throws but absolutely blow potential game winning drives with haphazard passes and general idiocy/decision making(see NFC championship in 2007 and 2009). That's right; twice in a three span Favre destroyed his team's chances at Super Bowl glory because of a poor pass.
Which leads us back to Brees. In the past three years since the Super Bowl win, he has embraced the "Gunslinger" mode in which he consistenly says "screw it, I'm Drew Brees. I've won a Super Bowl. Just because that WR is blanketed by 3 defensive backs and there's a .0001% chance I can fit the ball into the wide receiver's window, I'm Brees. Whats the worst that could happen?" One ill advised pass later, he's walking off the field as the Saint's defensive players trot out AGAIN, looking at Brees sideways in disgust, knowing that the golden boy tried to play hero again. In his last three seasons, he is averaging over 18 interceptions per year, in comparision Aaron Rodgers is averaging just over 8.
How will HoF voters ultimately cast their ballots for Brees? I think in their minds he is a lock. They will look at the post Katrina Super Bowl as well as his gaudy career numbers and disregard the idiotic chucker he's become which is just wrong. He's career record is pedestrian, his playoff record is borderline, and he's padded his stats through cloud high pass attempts.
If I were a voter, I wouldnt put him in quite yet, so I'm putting his chances at: 20%
Thats it for part 2. If you actually read all of it, congratulations on giving me an hour of youf free time!
No comments:
Post a Comment